Every single commentator is saying that the result of the Brexit vote is “too close to call”. This in itself, however, tells us several things.
The first is that, without the murder of MP Jo Cox and its ruthless exploitation by the Remain camp and its allies in the media, a comfortable majority of Brits would have voted to Leave. This means that, even if the Remain camp wins, their ‘victory’ will lack any moral weight and will not be accepted by one half of the nation. The future political and social fallout from this will be huge.
Unusually, there are no public exit polls, but a consortium of City financial institutions have commissioned a comprehensive private polling operation of their own. This is clearly an attempt to repeat the fabled success of Nathan Rothschild in being the first in London to hear the result of the Battle of Waterloo.
If, by about 4.30 p.m. today, this poll gives its recipients a clear advance idea of the result, then the first hint the rest of us might get is a sudden shift in currency-buying and share-trading patterns just before the close of trade in the London financial markets.
Earlier this morning, the banksters’ poll was apparently indicating that, nationwide, the two sides were “neck and neck”. Just how close is indicated by the comment by someone involved in the operation that “if a train-load of commuters out of London this evening breaks down, that could decide it”.
Meanwhile, however, anecdotal evidence that I’m getting from all over working class England – from places like Sunderland, Oldham, the Black Country, Basildon and Dartford – says that support for Leave in these ‘safe Labour’ areas is overwhelming.
How can one square these two apparently very divergent facts? Very easily in fact, because the City-commissioned poll is scientific (remember that it’s being done for reasons of hard profit, not propaganda) and covers the whole country. In particular, it will be reflecting the enormous pro-Remain lead in Scotland and London, and among the quiet voters of the upper middle-class, with their very high turn-out rate.
This brings us to the second thing we can say for sure: That, if Remain’s exploitation of the Jo Cox murder has indeed given them the edge, large swathes of working class and lower middle class England and Wales will simply not believe it. Guided by their own experience of the declarations of their friends, families and workmates, they will conclude that Leave won by a country mile, and that they have been robbed.
The rapid spread today of the hashtag #usepens as a precaution against polling officials rubbing out votes made in the traditional pencils, shows the deeply cynical view of the whole process that is already in place.
The third point to understand is that, if the result among those polling today is already as close as everyone seems to agree, then Remain will indeed win the vote overall. This is because millions of people have ALREADY voted by post, over the last two weeks, and because the postal vote is where the result has been swayed by fraud.
While some of those votes were posted before the politically manipulated GriefFest following the Jo Cox murder, it is a fact that the majority of Britain’s huge reservoir of postal voters were registered by the superior electoral machines of Labour, the Liberal Democrats and the Scottish National Party. The postal vote therefore has a built-in bias towards Remain.
On top of that, postal votes in the UK arrive on a daily basis at each of the town halls, the majority of which are staffed by left-wing, middle class members of the civil service union UNISON, which is heavily funded by the EU and is a vocal supporter of Remain. Pictured right is a screenshot from UNISON’s website, showing the recommendation to Remain made by the union of those counting the votes.(The fact that polling officials allowed the clear breach of the rules by those placing flowers at the Batley polling station pictured above is a small but telling indicator of the cynical mentality of these people).
On top of that, the appointment of which officials are chosen to run the daily opening and verification of the postal votes is decided by the bosses of each council, which in Labour-run areas makes them political appointments.
Some of even these Labour appointees are no doubt as honest as their Conservative counterparts out in the Shires. But a significant minority are hardcore leftists, whose attitude to democracy is closer to that of Turkey’s President Erdogan that to that of the rest of us. In this contest, there has been no effort whatsoever by the Leave campaigns to organise volunteers to go and monitor these daily counts (a big job that would swallow manpower), still less to secure the ballot box each day with their own seals, as is legally permitted but very rarely done.
As a result, for the last fortnight, in an unknown but statistically very significant number of mainly urban town halls, two or three Labour Remain activists will have each spent just a couple of minutes a day ‘spoiling’ bundles of ‘Leave’ votes by the simple expedient of adding a second cross to them and making them invalid.
This is not speculation. As the BNP’s lead candidate in the North West of England in the European Elections of 2004, I was robbed of the final regional seat by the huge number of spoilt ballot papers showing one vote for the BNP and another for a different candidate (usually the hardline Socialist Party, which received hardly any genuine votes of its own).
Five years later, we organised a huge operation, in which we had a volunteer observer in every one of the region’s 42 counting centres, every day in which postal votes were being opened and checked. What is more, every one of those volunteers was trained, briefed and equipped to put our own seals on the ballot boxes at the end of every day.
In the majority of places, the Returning Officers were surprised by this. Some needed to be shown the laminated sheet giving chapter and verse of the electoral law giving us that right, but were then quite happy with it. But a significant minority were besides themselves with anger about it. Some even threatened to call the police.
But all of them in the end accepted our right to seal the boxes. And when the postal votes were finally counted properly the number of spoilt ballots crashed to a fraction of what it had been five years before when we and our voters were cheated. Given that, out of an electorate of well over four million, I took the last seat in the region with a majority of less than 1,000, there is absolutely no doubt that, had we not secured the postal votes, I would not have become an MEP.
The naïve or ignorant organisers of the Leave campaign saw fit to pour millions of pounds into persuading people to vote, but put no effort at all into securing the votes against this simple fraud. So if the voting in polling stations today is indeed a 50:50 split, then Remain will win on the postal votes. It will be the Austrian Presidential election all over again.
Now, of course, it is possible that the heavy rain in pro-Remain London, together with the impact on the Undecideds of Herr Junker’s badly mistimed arrogance yesterday, could give Leave enough of a lead in the polling stations to overcome the Remain bias of the corrupted postal votes.
But, I regret to have to tell you, the more realistic prediction is that Britain will remain in the EU. And that literally half the population will believe – with good reason, even if they don’t actually know how it was done – that their Referendum was STOLEN.
